I was reading the recent SLAM article on incoming Washington Huskies freshman point guard Abdul Gaddy and saw that one of his goals this upcoming season is to lead the Pac-10 in assists. That got me thinking what his chances of doing that are. Not many freshmen, no matter how talented, have led a major conference in assists. However, given the amount of talent that was lost from last season in the Pac-10 due to graduation and the NBA Draft, there's a decent chance that Gaddy will lead the conference in assists this season. Of the top 10 leaders in assists from last season, only 3 return:
Jerome Randle (Cal) 1st overall in assists at 5 per game
I would expect Randle's assist numbers to be the same or slightly better given that his role on the team will be the same next season. Randle also has almost his entire team coming back. I would expect Patrick Christopher, Theo Robertson, Harper Kamp, and D.J. Seely's scoring numbers to all improve from a year ago which should benefit Randle in the assists department. Finally, Randle becoming a senior and playing with the same players he did last season should lead to even better playmaking and even more consistent decision making play than he had last season.
Derek Glasser (ASU), 2nd overall in assists at 4.8 per game
I think Derek Glasser's assist numbers will slip now that he won't have NBA players James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph to pass to this season. His role with the team will also most likely change to where he will be asked to score on a more consistent basis (He is ASU's second highest returning scorer). He played a ton of minutes last season (33 per game) and even with the expanded scoring role, he should play around the same minutes per game this season. I think with all of these factors, his assist numbers will slightly drop.
Nic Wise (UA) 5th overall in assists at 4.6 per game
I think Nic Wise, like Glasser, will also see his assist numbers drop; and for much of the same reasons. Wise won't have NBA players Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger to pass to this season. He will also most likely become the team's go-to scorer this season given that he is the team's highest returning scorer, only senior, and the rest of his team will be made up of role players from last season and freshmen. Wise played over 36 minutes per game last season. I expect his minutes to go down this season which could negatively affect his assist numbers. New head coach Sean Miller is likely to give the freshmen players he recruited significant playing time this season and that should result in a deeper rotation (was only 6-7 deep this season) and less minutes for Wise. Wise will still play big minutes, it just won't be over 36 again.
Looking around the rest of the conference, there doesn't look like there is any other current or incoming player, other than Abdul Gaddy, who could really emerge and challenge the 3 players mentioned above for the assists title this season. If Gaddy is going to lead the Pac-10 in assists there are a couple of factors that he will have to overcome. First, Washington’s coach Lorenzo Romar is known for having a very deep rotation and I don't expect that to change this season. Just to put this into context with the rest of the conference, last season Washington had no player average more than 30 minutes per game, all of the players mentioned above were playing around 35 minutes per game. As good as Gaddy is going to be, he's not going to buck this trend as a freshman. Also contributing to the fact that this is unlikely, is that Washington already has a very capable upperclassmen point guard in Venoy Overton who is going to get major minutes this season. So when Gaddy is on the floor, he's going to have to be very efficient. I think this is likely to happen because Gaddy will have a ton of offensive options (arguably more than any other Pac-10 team) to distribute the ball to; and at all positions (Isaiah Thomas/Venoy Overton at the guard positions, Quincy Pondexter/Elston Turner on the wing, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning down low. In addition, the uptempo style of play Romar implements will lead to a ton of fast break opportunities for Gaddy to pick up assists.
The other major obstacle Gaddy is going to have to overcome is his youth and inexperience. The 3 players mentioned above will all be seniors and playing their fourth years in the conference. In contrast, Gaddy will be 17 years old when Pac-10 play starts. Gaddy will have to get also have to get used to the physical play in the Pac-10 and stay healthy. All 3 of the guys mentioned above have been very durable throughout their college careers; staying injury free for the most part despite playing major minutes.
Given all of these factors. I feel like Jerome Randle has to be the frontrunner to lead the conference in assists next season but Gaddy will be right there with him the entire time given he can stay healthy and get consistent minutes (at least 25 a game).
In typical Tmike fashion, here’s a highlight reel of Gaddy at the University of Arizona’s basketball summer camp at age 15.
2 comments:
My only problem with the highlight video, is that he running 3 vs 2 breaks over and over, but I do like the lil wayne song playing in the background.
is it that rare for freshmen to lead a major conference in assists, i mean conley jr led in the Big 10 recently?
If you check Gaddy's scout.com profile that I linked in the post, there's some 5 on 5 AAU and high school play. There's also some clips of him going up against John Wall.
Yeah Conley was an exceptional player in college. He also had Greg Oden to pass the ball to for easy points. I can't think of any others off of the top of my head that have done it recently. Maybe Jason Kidd at Cal 20 years ago?
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